| Wall Street Transcript
67 WALL STREET, New York - November 24, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Travel and Leisure Report --Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 137 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
Topics covered: Consumer Traveler Spending - U-Shaped Recovery in Restaurant Sector - Low-Cost and Network Airlines - Airline Carriers and Online Travel Agencies - Hotel Occupancy Rates - Improvement in Transportation Sector - Upscale Casual and Fast Casual Restaurants - Near-Term Risk in Hotel Space - Fuel Prices a Universal Concern - Restaurant Industry Stability - Increased Consolidation in Airline Industry - Firming of Traffic Trends in Restaurant Space Companies include: Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN); Air France-KLM (AFLYY); AirTrans (AAI); Alaska Air Group (ALK); Allegiant Travel Group (ALGT); American Airlines (AMR); Applebee's (APPB); Ashford (AHT); BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Boeing (BA); Brinker (EAT); British Airways (BAY); Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD); Burger King Corp (BKC); California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI); Carnival (CCL); Cheesecake Factories (CAKE); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Choice (CHH); Continental Airlines (CAL); Darden (DRI); Delta Airlines (DAL); Denny's (DENN); DiamondRock (DRH); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Expedia (EXPE); Famous Dave's (DAVE); FelCor (FCH); Gaylord Entertainment (GET); Great Wolf Resorts (WOLF); Green Mountain (GMCR); Hawaiian Holdings (HA); Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN); Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT); JetBlue Airlines (JBLU); LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO); Lufthansa (LHA); MHI Hospitality Corporation (MDH); Marriott (MAR); McDonalds (MCD); Mesa (MESA); Morton's Steakhouse (MRT); National Business Travel Association (NBTA); National Mediation Board (NMB); Orbitz (OWW); P.F. Chang's (PFCB); Panera Bread (PNRA); Peet's (PEET); Priceline (PCLN); Republic Airlines (RJET); Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines (RCL); Royal Caribbean International (HST); Ruby Tuesday (RT); Ruth's Chris Steakhouse (RUTH); Sonesta (SNSTA); Sonic (SONC); Southwest Airlines (LUV); Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB); Starbucks (SBUX); Starwood Hotels (HOT); Strategic (BEE); Sunstone (SHO); Texas Roadhouse (TXRH); UFood (UFFC.OB); US Air (LCC); United Airlines (UAUA); Wyndham (WYN) In the following brief excerpt from just one of the 25 in depth interviews in the 137 page Special Report, an award winning equity analyst discusses the outlook for the Hotel sector for investors. Chris Woronka, Vice President, Equity Research, is the lead lodging and hotel REIT Analyst for Deutsche Bank. He has approximately eight years of sell-side research experience in the gaming, lodging, leisure and REIT sectors, including affiliations with teams previously ranked by Institutional Investor and The Wall Street Journal's annual "Best on the Street" survey. He is currently ranked as a five-star analyst by StarMine for earnings estimate accuracy and as a four-star analyst by StarMine for recommendations performance. His research has been quoted in numerous media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Time, Reuters, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, SmartMoney, The Washington Post and The New York Times. He has been featured on CNBC's "Closing Bell" program and has also participated on Information Management Network and New York University Hospitality Conference panels. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank in 2004, Mr. Woronka held equity research positions at CIBC World Markets and BB&T Capital Markets. He holds an MBA in finance and a B.S. in accounting from the R.B. Pamplin College of Business at Virginia Tech. He is based at Deutsche Bank's New York headquarters. TWST: Any companies you are concerned about? Mr. Woronka: I'll just say with a broad stroke the hotel REITS - I cover six of them, and there are others I don't cover - seem to be priced pretty fully to me. I think the challenge there is that investors are looking at all the potential operating leverage because they own the hotels. And therefore as you think about recovery, you get not just the RevPAR growth, but you should get a multiplier on that down to the EBITDA line. But if we are truly headed for a reflationary environment or an inflationary environment, although nominally that's positive for room rates, it's also going to impact costs. These guys only ever operate at 25% or so EBITDA margin. So the flow-through is not dramatic. All of these companies have done a truly excellent job of taking costs out of their system over the past, say, year to year and a half. It's pretty remarkable; it's better than anything we have seen. Now what that means on the flip side is when they start getting a few more hotel rooms full, I am not sure they are going to be able to keep all the costs out. And I think if you start to have inflation on the direct product - whether it's labor or whether it's food and beverage, or whether it's room supplies - there is nowhere that they are going to be able to cut to offset that because they have already cut as much as they possibly can. Some people would argue that they've over cut. So again I think a lot of investors right now are viewing the hotel sector, including these hotel REITS, as hedges against inflation because they are saying, "Hey, if there is inflation, it's actually good for hotel rates." And it is theoretically, assuming supply and demand are favorably balanced because that's what ultimately determines hotel rates. But assuming room rates do rise in an inflationary environment, you start to worry about costs. And again, I think that's a big issue. That's why my opinion is that the flow-through there, when we think out to 2011-2012, it's just not going to be as strong as what a lot of folks are expecting. Note: Opinions and recommendations are as of 10/05/09. CHRIS WORONKA Vice President, Equity Research Deutsche Bank The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 37 page special issue is available via The Wall Street Transcript Online . The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations. For Information on subscribing to The Wall Street Transcript, please call 800/246-7673
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