Wall Street Transcript
The Time To Buy US Based Airline Stocks Is Now Says Award Winning Equity Analyst
Monday November 23, 5:10 pm ET

67 WALL STREET, New York - November 23, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Travel and Leisure Report--Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 137 page special feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: Consumer Traveler Spending - U-Shaped Recovery in Restaurant Sector - Low-Cost and Network Airlines - Airline Carriers and Online Travel Agencies - Hotel Occupancy Rates - Improvement in Transportation Sector - Upscale Casual and Fast Casual Restaurants - Near-Term Risk in Hotel Space - Fuel Prices a Universal Concern - Restaurant Industry Stability - Increased Consolidation in Airline Industry - Firming of Traffic Trends in Restaurant Space

Companies include: Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN); Air France-KLM (AFLYY); AirTrans (AAI); Alaska Air Group (ALK); Allegiant Travel Group (ALGT); American Airlines (AMR); Applebee's (APPB); Ashford (AHT); BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Boeing (BA); Brinker (EAT); British Airways (BAY); Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD); Burger King Corp (BKC); California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI); Carnival (CCL); Cheesecake Factories (CAKE); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Choice (CHH); Continental Airlines (CAL); Darden (DRI); Delta Airlines (DAL); Denny's (DENN); DiamondRock (DRH); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Expedia (EXPE); Famous Dave's (DAVE); FelCor (FCH); Gaylord Entertainment (GET); Great Wolf Resorts (WOLF); Green Mountain (GMCR); Hawaiian Holdings (HA); Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN); Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT); JetBlue Airlines (JBLU); LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO); Lufthansa (LHA); MHI Hospitality Corporation (MDH); Marriott (MAR); McDonalds (MCD); Mesa (MESA); Morton's Steakhouse (MRT); National Business Travel Association (NBTA); National Mediation Board (NMB); Orbitz (OWW); P.F. Chang's (PFCB); Panera Bread (PNRA); Peet's (PEET); Priceline (PCLN); Republic Airlines (RJET); Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines (RCL); Royal Caribbean International (HST); Ruby Tuesday (RT); Ruth's Chris Steakhouse (RUTH); Sonesta (SNSTA); Sonic (SONC); Southwest Airlines (LUV); Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB); Starbucks (SBUX); Starwood Hotels (HOT); Strategic (BEE); Sunstone (SHO); Texas Roadhouse (TXRH); UFood (UFFC.OB); US Air (LCC); United Airlines (UAUA); Wyndham (WYN)

In the following brief excerpt from just one of the in depth interviews in the 137 page Travel and Leisure Report, an award winning equity analyst discusses the outlook for the sector and for investors.

HELANE BECKER is a Managing Director at Jesup & Lamont who covers the transportation industry, focusing on airlines, air freight and freight forwarding. Ms. Becker has more than 25 years of experience in the financial industry, holding positions within research, trading and investment banking departments. Prior to joining Jesup & Lamont, she was Managing Director at CapStone Investments and helped to raise capital for small- to mid-cap companies.

She also previously held positions at Smith Barney, Lehman Brothers and several other broker-dealers as a Senior Transportation Analyst. Ms. Becker was ranked first, second or third from 1985 to 1993 by Institutional Investor magazine. She was also ranked in the top five by the Wall Street Journal in 1992, 1993, 1997, 2001 and 2002 as one of the best analysts on the Street. Ms. Becker holds a B.A. from Montclair State University and an MBA from New York University. She is a member of several organizations, including Who's Who Among Women in Business, and she is a former President of The Society of Airline Analysts.

TWST: Let's start with your overall outlook for the airline industry today. What is your outlook and why?

Ms. Becker: We think that the airlines have seen the bottom or are in the process of bottoming, and our outlook for the third quarter is for an aggregate total of about $30 billion in revenue, and operating profit of about $600 million and a net loss of about $400 million. Obviously, all numbers exclude non-recurring gains, charges and mark-to-market hedge-related gains and losses. The revenue estimate is for a decline of about 8%. That compares to our initial estimate earlier in the year that revenues would be down between 7% and 9%. I think that the fourth quarter should show a little bit of improvement versus the third quarter and versus last year. We're thinking the fourth quarter will be low single digits, so down 3% to 7%. And then 2010 we think will be better.

TWST: So perhaps the worst is behind us?

Ms. Becker: We think the worst is behind us.

TWST: I'm sure you saw these statistics too, but I read recently that globally the airline industry is expected to lose $11 billion this year and another $3.8 billion in 2010. How much of that is attributable to the U.S. airline industry?

Ms. Becker: I think that most of that is attributable to airlines outside the United States. The U.S. is far ahead of the rest of the world in terms of capacity reductions and adjustments to declines in traffic. Of the $11 billion decline that IATA is estimating, which is the number that you just cited, probably about $3.5 billion to $4 billion is related to the United States; the rest is outside the U.S. And the reason for that is the U.S. airlines were very quick to cut capacity when fuel prices were going up and the rest of the world did not. The rest of the major airlines, like British Airways (BAY) and Lufthansa (LHA), Air France-KLM (AFLYY), Japan Airline (JALSY), waited a very long time before they moved the needle on capacity. And so the U.S. airlines had about a one-year head start, and the result was that when traffic turned down, it didn't look quite as bad for the U.S. airlines as it did for the peer group.

Note: Opinions and recommendations are as of 10/07/09.

HELANE BECKER

Jesup & Lamont

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 137 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

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