| Wall Street Transcript
67 WALL STREET, New York - November 13, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its TWST Transportation & Logistics Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 69 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
Topics covered: China Export Tax -- Overcapacity in the Shipping Industry -- Regional Market Balance -- VLCC Traffic Flow -- Asia-Pacific Region Transportation Growth -- US Import/Export Traffic -- Distressed Shipping Balance Sheets -- Terminating Markets -- Tanker Companies Versus Dry Bulk Companies -- Chinese Infrastructure Stimulus -- Real Demand Versus Stimulus Demand -- Monitoring Potential Acquisitions -- Automobile Industry Demand Forecasts -- Demand in Emerging Countries -- Falling Demand -- Future Oversupply -- Growth of Fleets -- Pickups in Infrastructure Spending -- Navigating the Downturn -- Chinese Cell Phones Market Growth -- Affects of Declines in Passenger Flights -- Capacity of Passenger Aircraft -- Improvement in Volumes -- Pricing Margins -- Restructuring and Consolidation -- Chinese Government Ship Building Infrastructure Growth -- Wage Concessions -- Railroad Expansion Companies include: Federal-Mogul (FDML); CSX (CSX); Con-way (CNW); Danaos (DAC); Delta Air Lines (DAL); Diana Shipping (DSX); DryShips (DRYS); Euroseas (ESEA); Excel (EXM); Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD); Exxon (XOM); FedEx's (FDX); Forward Air (FWD); General Maritime (GMR); Imarex (IMAREX); Maersk (Maersk-A); Navios (NM); Nordic American Tankers (NAT); Norfolk Southern (NSC); Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG); Rand Logistics (RLOG); Seaspan (SSW); SinoHub (SIHI); Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK); Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP); Union Pacific (UNP); United Parcel Service (UPS); Vale (VALE); YRC Worldwide's (YRCW). In the following brief excerpt from just one of the in depth interviews in the 69 page Special Report, a 50 year industry veteran discusses the outlook for the Air Cargo sector for investors. David P. Campbell Sr. is Senior Vice President-Research Analyst and Institutional Sales at Thompson, Davis & Company. He received a BS in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania, attended the U.S. Navy Officers Candidate School and served with the Atlantic Fleet Destroyer Squadron from 1959 to 1962. He was with the Investment Department of U.S. Trust Company from 1962 to 1965, Lieber and Company from 1965 to 1970, Wheat and Company from 1970 to 1985, Scott and Stringfellow from 1985 to 2002 and Branch Cabell from 2000 to 2002. He was Founder, Sales and Research at Thompson, Davis & Company in July 2002. TWST: What are you seeing at this point as you talk to the companies? They're a pretty good indicator of what's going on in the world. Mr. Campbell: The companies don't say as much as they did a number of years ago because of full disclosure in the investment community. But there certainly is a lot of data that doesn't come from the companies that is helpful in looking at the economic picture and figuring out what's happening. TWST: What is that data telling you at this point? Mr. Campbell: The data coming from global air cargo markets indicates a recovery, indicates that there may be a seasonal peak this year beginning in September; it actually started at the end of August. That cargo peak was not there last year. It doesn't mean that we have an increase year-to-year in freight just yet, but we are, of course, getting smaller decreases in cargo tonnage in most areas of the world. We do have increases in cargo tonnage year-to-year in the Middle East, in Dubai. It is one of the largest terminals in the world. We are beginning to get increases in the Asia-Pacific region year-to-year in some directions and in some markets, but overall, air cargo is still down. TWST: So down, but at a slower rate? Mr. Campbell: It looks like air cargo is getting an increasing share, for the time being, of the overall cargo market. TWST: Why is that in a tough economy? Mr. Campbell: The companies that will talk about it think that it's largely due to shortage of inventories, manufacturing components and some consumer goods in some parts of the world and the shippers require delivery of the tonnage sooner than normally, and therefore they are using air cargo. Secondly there's been a big decrease in air cargo rates and so it's a lot less expensive to use than six months or a year ago. TWST: Are those lower rates pretty much across the board? Mr. Campbell: The cargo rates are down pretty much across the board, yes. TWST: And pretty good types of goods, or is it fairly broad? I mean is it any particular type of cargo or are they seeing kind of a broad improvement? Mr. Campbell: Airfreight is always high-valued merchandise and high-valued components of manufacturing. It's not the typical type of freight that moves in sea freight containers normally and it's not commodities with the exception of some perishables and flowers and that sort of cargo. Demand for air cargo is largely in high-valued merchandise. So we are talking electrical components, electronics; we are talking infrastructure parts; we are talking high-valued fashion merchandise, cell phones, and other types of relatively high-valued consumer goods, and importantly, their components in manufacturing. The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 69 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online . The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations. For Information on subscribing to The Wall Street Transcript, please call 800/246-7673
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