Wall Street Transcript
Emerging Markets And Logistics Software Development Key Factors For Success In Air Cargo Business
Friday November 13, 7:45 am ET

67 WALL STREET, New York - November 13, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its TWST Transportation & Logistics Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 69 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: China Export Tax -- Overcapacity in the Shipping Industry -- Regional Market Balance -- VLCC Traffic Flow -- Asia-Pacific Region Transportation Growth -- US Import/Export Traffic -- Distressed Shipping Balance Sheets -- Terminating Markets -- Tanker Companies Versus Dry Bulk Companies -- Chinese Infrastructure Stimulus -- Real Demand Versus Stimulus Demand -- Monitoring Potential Acquisitions -- Automobile Industry Demand Forecasts -- Demand in Emerging Countries -- Falling Demand -- Future Oversupply -- Growth of Fleets -- Pickups in Infrastructure Spending -- Navigating the Downturn -- Chinese Cell Phones Market Growth -- Affects of Declines in Passenger Flights -- Capacity of Passenger Aircraft -- Improvement in Volumes -- Pricing Margins -- Restructuring and Consolidation -- Chinese Government Ship Building Infrastructure Growth -- Wage Concessions -- Railroad Expansion

Companies include: Federal-Mogul (FDML); CSX (CSX); Con-way  (CNW); Danaos (DAC); Delta Air Lines (DAL); Diana Shipping (DSX); DryShips (DRYS); Euroseas (ESEA); Excel (EXM); Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD); Exxon (XOM); FedEx's (FDX); Forward Air (FWD); General Maritime (GMR); Imarex (IMAREX); Maersk (Maersk-A); Navios (NM); Nordic American Tankers (NAT); Norfolk Southern (NSC); Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG); Rand Logistics (RLOG); Seaspan (SSW); SinoHub (SIHI); Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK); Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP); Union Pacific (UNP); United Parcel Service (UPS); Vale  (VALE); YRC Worldwide's (YRCW).

In the following brief excerpt from just one of the in depth interviews in the 69 page Special Report, a 50 year industry veteran discusses the outlook for the Air Cargo sector for investors.

David P. Campbell Sr. is Senior Vice President-Research Analyst and Institutional Sales at Thompson, Davis & Company. He received a BS in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania, attended the U.S. Navy Officers Candidate School and served with the Atlantic Fleet Destroyer Squadron from 1959 to 1962. He was with the Investment Department of U.S. Trust Company from 1962 to 1965, Lieber and Company from 1965 to 1970, Wheat and Company from 1970 to 1985, Scott and Stringfellow from 1985 to 2002 and Branch Cabell from 2000 to 2002. He was Founder, Sales and Research at Thompson, Davis & Company in July 2002.

TWST: In general, has the tightening that you're seeing in terms of company operations been pretty much across the board, or has some guys done it better than others?

Mr. Campbell: Yes, certainly some better than others. The market for airfreight and other types of freight is very cyclical. We are seeing the seasonal upturn in the cycle helping profitability, because the costs are down and lower than they were in the first quarter.

TWST: So everybody is kind of holding their own. What's going on from a CapEx point of view? Is anybody spending money in this environment?

Mr. Campbell: Most of the spending is in infrastructure and information technology. There is not a lot of spending on warehouses, aircraft or other types of fixed assets. The companies continue to spend money to reduce costs through automation and through improved technology and information.

TWST: What happens when we come out of this? Are they going to have enough capacity to meet even slightly improved demand?

Mr. Campbell: The capacity will come back as needed. There is capacity on sidelines waiting for demand.

TWST: Then then are not going to run into shortages and much higher prices at any point?

Mr. Campbell: No, I don't look for significant price increases.

TWST: As you look at the industry, is the industry kind of restructuring itself to meet this new slower paradigm that we seem to be in?

Mr. Campbell: The restructuring of the industry has stopped or slowed down, because of the difficulty in getting money from credit sources. Normally you'd see a lot of mergers and acquisitions in this business, but there hasn't been much of that going on in the last 12 months, because of the downturn in credit and difficulty of financing mergers and acquisitions. The restructuring is limited primarily to adding branches where necessary to handle the regional increases in traffic in places like the Middle East, India and China.

TWST: Are those newer markets, the Middle East, India and China, going to be kind of where the growth is going to be longer-term?

Mr. Campbell: I would say yes. What is doing better now than the rest of world should continue. We have growth in some markets. As the regional economies in the world get better, the stronger markets that are seeing increased cargo now will probably see the fastest growth in 2010 and later.

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 69 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

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