Wall Street Transcript
Wind Power Currently $0.06 Per KiloWatt Hour, Southern California Solar Power At $0.21 To $0.22/kWh: Natural Gas Must Double In Price For Cost Parity Without Government Subsidy According To Industry Expert
Friday September 25, 1:37 pm ET

67 WALL STREET, New York - September 25, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Alternative Energy/Clean Energy/Power Generation/Utilities Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 83 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: Long Term Perspective on Alternative Energy Industry -- Leading Indicators for Alternative Energy Components Companies -- Mergers and Acquisitions in the Alternative Energy Industry -- Break Even Business Fundamentals for Carbon Free Energy Providers -- Development of Carbon Free Energy Production Infrastructure -- NAT GAS Act -- New Players in the Alternative Energy Industry -- Solar Power Cell Manufacturers Market Strategy -- Demand Response for Raw Materials for Solar Cell Production -- Alternative Energy Investment Opportunities -- Multiple Stock Winners in Carbon Free Production Industry -- Government Funding of Alternative Energy Power Providers -- Chinese Solar Energy Companies -- Alternative Energy Hedge Fund Investors -- Commodity Cycles -- Determinants of Market Valuations in the Alternative Energy Production Industry -- Carbon Emissions Statistics -- Energy Efficiency Statistics -- Innovations in Solar and Wind Power Generation -- Business Economics for Methane Based Power Generation -- Electric Vehicles Projections and Statistics-- Cap and Trade Projections and Statistics -- Development of Battery Technology -- Regulatory Environment Developments for Solar, Wind, and Alternative Energy -- Hybrid Vehicles Development and Sales Projections

Companies include: Tanfield (TAN.L); Smith Electric Vehicles U.S.; Valence (VLNC); Spire (SPIR); Newport (NEWP); MYR Group (MYRG); Primoris (PRIM); Tetra Tech (TTEK); EnerNOC (ENOC); Comverge (COMV); EnergyConnect (ECNG.OB); Calgon Carbon (CCC); and Ener1 (HEV); Westport Innovations (WPRT); Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE); Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS); FuelCell Energy (FCEL); FEI Company (FEIC); Veeco (VECO); ATT (ATT); Landi Renzo (LR.MI); Teleflex (TFX); Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A); Wal-Mart (WMT); Pepsico (PEP); FuelMaker; Chevrolet; GM; Honda (HMC); Itron (ITRI); Siemens (SI); American Superconductor (AMSC); GE (GE); and ABB (ABB);

In the following brief excerpt from one of the 23 interviews in the 83 page report, an industry expert discusses the outlook for the sector and for investors.

Pearce Hammond is a Director of Institutional Research for Simmons & Company International, a full-service investment bank serving the energy sector. He covers the alternative energy and coal sectors. Mr. Pearce has a B.S. from the United States Military Academy and an MBA from Rice University. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and is a member of the Houston CFA Society.

TWST: What are some of the markers that indicate a company can survive without government subsidies?

Mr. Hammond: The first thing is you have to understand what the baseline is that they are trying to reach. For most of these electricity technologies, the baseline is, What's the price of electricity derived from natural gas? And one thing that's happened over the course of the last year is that price of natural gas has collapsed and, in a similar way to the solar industry, not just because of the pullback in demand because of the economy, but also because these guys have been very prolific in bringing supply to market. And so there's a lot of natural gas supply out there. Since natural gas prices are so low - and to put these numbers in comparison, natural gas prices right this moment are about $2.96 in MMBtu. At $2.96 in MMBtu, that electricity - if that was the price, I don't believe that's going to be the price moving forward for natural gas forever - but if you believe that was the price forever, then alternative energy technologies have got to get down to like $0.03 a kilowatt in order to be economic. And that's a tall, tall order. And so when natural gas prices go back up - and they don't have to go back up to $10, to $12, to $15, but at least move back up to say $6, to $7 per MMBtu - that will help, number one. And then number two is to understand what the levelized cost of electricity is for the equivalent technology. So by levelized cost you're simply saying how much is the upfront capital cost to, say, buy a wind farm, and then how much electricity is it going to produce over its lifetime. And then also how much maintenance capital am I going to have to put in to keep the turbines lubed and everything else? So basically on a present-value basis, you look at all the costs that go into it, and you put all the kilowatt hours discounted in the denominator, and you get that cents-per-kilowatt-hour cost. So for wind, it's about $0.06 to $0.09 without subsidy. So if natural gas prices were to double or more than double, then you can see where wind becomes more competitive. Solar right now, I think the best solar without any kind of subsidies, let's say the best solar would be in a great sun region like Southern California. And you are looking at probably $0.21, $0.22 a kilowatt hour - somewhere in there. And of course to compete at the retail meter, it doesn't have to necessarily compete like a wholesaler because you need to put it on your roof and compete with the retail costs, which takes into account transmission and distribution. Those numbers range, but let's call those somewhere between $0.11 to $0.15 a kilowatt hour in most of the U.S. Solar has still got a ways to come down, but if you believe as I do that they can continue to do that, then it's just the case and time, some point in time at which they cross over with some of the other technologies, like cellulosic ethanol, which is taking a waste agricultural product and converting that, and it's a cellulosic feedstock, and then converting that into a fuel. It's not impossible. But right now, the costs are much harder. They've got a lot further to go down on their cost-decline curve.

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 83 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

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