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Falling Food Prices Trim Turkey Day Costs
Thursday November 12, 5:00 am ET
ByJoe Mont,

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Consumers filling their stomachs on Thanksgiving might leave the table with more money in their pockets, as falling commodity prices shrink the costs of holiday staples.

Retail prices for apples, potatoes, and corn have fallen as much as 25% in the past year, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Wholesale prices for chilled and frozen turkeys have dropped 9.2% in October from a year earlier, while those for wheat declined 31%.

Soft commodities, such as fruits and vegetables, have been losing value this year as a rainy growing season led to large harvests, and a strengthening dollar made these goods less appealing to investors. And domestic turkey production is down, but falling exports have created a glut of birds in the U.S.

While recession-weary consumers will welcome lower food costs, investors might also stand to gain. Falling wholesale costs are helping some food companies and retailers prosper even as customers cut spending.

Wal-Mart is looking to get into the T-Day profits. The world's largest retailer announced last week that it will offer a "turkey dinner for eight" for $20. It will include vegetables, rolls and turkeys priced at 40 cents a pound, down from $1.19 last year.

Last week, Sara Lee reported a 23% increase in its fiscal first-quarter profits. Its earnings of $284 million, 41 cents per share, jumped from the $230 million reported for the same quarter last year despite a 7% decrease in revenue ($2.59 billion). Lower commodity costs helped bridge the gap caused by slowed sales.

General Mills cited falling wheat costs as a contributor to its better-than-expected profit in its most recent quarter. Sales of Pillsbury baking products rose 14% during the period.

Profits at Hormel Foods' Jennie-O Turkey Stores doubled in its most recent quarter as lower grain prices made the birds cheaper to raise. Hormel may benefit from the troubles facing bankrupt rival Pilgrim's Pride, which might be acquired by Brazilian conglomerate JBS.

Exchange traded funds that invest in food companies and commodities have also benefitted. The PowerShares Dynamic Food and Beverage Fund has climbed 13% in the past year. The PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF , which invests in corn, red wheat, sugar and soybean futures, has risen 2.7%.

Despite the weak economy, shoppers are still buying convenience foods. Kraft Foods expects to sell 60 million boxes of Stove Top stuffing during the days before Thanksgiving.

For the unconventional diner, Jones Soda has unveiled a limited-time-only beverage flavor, "Tofurky and Gravy," through a partnership with the privately-owned Turtle Island Food. Tofurky, for the uninitiated, is a vegan-friendly bird substitute made primarily of soy. Last year, 308,436 Tofurky roasts were sold, a huge increase from the mere 500 purchased when the company launched in 1995. Over the years, more than 1.7 million of the faux birds have been sold.

-- Reported by Joe Mont in Boston.


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