| RealMoney by TheStreet.com Health care is front and center in today's political and economic discussions because the Obama administration has made health care reform one of its major goals. It's still too early to tell how health care reform will play out or if we'll even get any major reform to the health care system. Assuming we do get some form of health care reform, which seems to me likely, the question is: Who will be the probable winners in the health care industry? It's hard to tell, but the existing health care companies are certain to continue to play a major role. Even if we do not get health care reform, the existing industry players will do just fine. So I've taken a look at the health care industry to see if it has any interest among my Guru Strategies, which are computerized strategies I created based on the investment approaches of various well-known Wall Street investors. One strategy in particular, based on the writings of Peter Lynch, is extolling the virtues of the health care industry. If you are unfamiliar with Lynch, you need to remedy that. In the annals of the mutual fund industry, there is probably no fund manager with a more sterling reputation. From the late 1970s to 1990, when he took early retirement, Lynch managed Fidelity Magellan, which became the largest mutual fund in the world as a result of his track record. During the years he managed the fund, it averaged a remarkable 29.2% a year, nearly double the S&P 500's 15.8% (which also seems pretty remarkable, given the returns the market has experienced during the past decade). When I started setting up my Guru Strategies in July 2003, Lynch's was included in the initial group. I could not imagine talking about the strategies of the greats without including him. Since then, the Lynch strategy has produced one of the best returns of any strategy, which is 8.8% a year on average, versus the S&P 500's 0.7%. When the Lynch strategy says a certain industry is worth paying attention to -- as it is doing now with health care -- investors should listen. One industry player liked by the Lynch strategy is Catalyst Health Solutions Lynch's most famous investment variable is the PEG ratio, where he looks at the price-to-earnings ratio relative to the company's growth. This is a way to measure how much you are paying for growth. The strategy sets a limit of 1 for this ratio; anything higher suggests you are paying too much for growth, and the lower the ratio is than 1, the better. Catalyst's PEG is 0.88, which is perfectly acceptable. When buying the stock at its current price, you are paying a reasonable amount for growth. The strategy also places a limit on the P/E ratio. For companies whose annual revenue exceeds $1 billion, the P/E needs to be south of 40. Catalyst's revenues top $2.7 billion, and its P/E is 24.9. Another plus for Catalyst is its equity-to-assets ratio. The strategy calls for this to be above 5%, while Catalyst's is a robust 52%. Finally, Catalyst's return on assets is also impressive. This has to be north of 1%, and Catalyst's is 8.3%. Molina Healthcare A third company to consider is the Unum Group Humana Assurant All five of these companies are well-positioned in the health care industry and have the backing of the Lynch strategy. Whichever way the wind blows regarding changes in the health care industry, these companies are worth considering as additions to your portfolio.
At the time of publication, Reese and his clients were long MOH and HUM, although holdings can change at any time. John P. Reese is founder and CEO of Validea.com, an investment research firm, and Validea Capital Management, an asset management firm serving affluent investors and companies. He is also co-author of two investing books, including The Guru Investor: How to Beat the Market Using History's Best Investment Strategies (Wiley). Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Reese appreciates your feedback. Click here to send him an email.
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