| RealMoney by TheStreet.com Following every steep economic decline in the last 200 years is a symmetrical rebound -- robust growth always follows a severe decline. Given the chiseled-to-the-bone operating expense structures prevalent in corporate America, a significant economic pickup will cause earnings to explode and stocks to soar. But maybe this time it will be different. Maybe we'll see an historic anomaly: sluggish growth following a dramatic decline. With the right stock portfolio, investors can still profit handsomely in such an economic scenario. Many companies have sized operations to be profitable in a moribund economy. In some cases, a tiny uptick in sales will result in profitability that approaches peak levels. Below, I'll recommend four stocks that will reap gains for investors in a sluggish economy. I touted the first three in a column one year ago, back in the ditzy days of the mega-bear market, when I observed, "scores of stocks have been pulverized to levels so low that, well, you need a damn magnifying glass to see their stock quote." That's where the action is in this cycle -- in pulverized stocks -- not in stocks undamaged by the mega-bear. In the same column, I urged readers to avoid Kellogg Office Depot Legg Mason Asset managers are worth roughly 2% to 2.5% of assets under management (AUM), though adjustments have to be made for factors such as the percentage of equity assets under management, which carry higher fees, versus fixed-income assets. For Legg Mason, I'm using a conservative 1.75% valuation on $700 million in assets under management. Note that a P/E ratio is useless in valuing this stock. There's too much noise in recent quarterly reports. You'll see margins and earnings soar over the next few quarters, as cost cuts flow to the bottom line. When it happens, the stock will be a lot closer to $75 than to $30 per share. Manitowoc It's down about 8% since I recommended a year ago, a disappointing performace compared with the 16% S&P return. Not to worry. I'm more confident than ever that owners of this stock will enjoy a multi-fold return. I expect a quote of $25-$30 in the next three years, which, if I'm right, will be significantly higher than the S&P return. NCR A premier provider of ATM and point-of-sale technology, the company is enjoying solid growth in China and India. Domestically, it's at trough sales levels. Even if sales rebound modestly next year (as the company expects), the margin leverage built into the operating model will prompt a sizable improvement in earnings. I'll mention, too, that this is an appropriate stock for conservative investors, as the company has negligible debt and over $400 million in cash. Next Monday's ColumnLook for my regular column again next week, when I'll name more stocks in the bargain bin. They'll be companies operating in industries where capacity has shrunk, competitors have disappeared and the survivors stand to profit.
At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long ODP, MTW, LM and NCR, although holdings can change at any time. Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, a California-based investment adviser. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||