| RealMoney by TheStreet.com Labor Day is finally in the rearview mirror, and we will now see if volume returns to the markets. It would be nice to see some sense of direction from traders and investors and less dominance by the black-box set. All summer it has seemed impossible for stocks to mount a meaningful decline as the automatic dip-buying pushed prices higher regardless of news, events or valuation. It is no secret that I am hoping we get a decline in the markets that brings us back to a level where I can be a happy buyer of stocks. Barron's published the market level and earnings predictions of some of the Street's top strategists, and the P/E levels they seem comfortable putting on 2009 earnings strikes me as too high for the no-growth reality we are facing for the next year or two. As I put together my game plan for the rest of the year, I am focusing on several key trends that I see developing. They're not new concepts, but this next selloff, if it occurs, will let long-term investors get involved in these trends. First and foremost of these is the small community and regional bank space. It has been incredibly frustrating to watch these stocks fall to levels that in the past would have me using margin and selling jewelry to buy. Every time I looked through the financial statements or talked to some of the local bankers, however, it was so clear to me that asset quality at these institutions was dubious at best and nonexistent at worst. I am hopeful that by the end of the year we will see enough stabilization in the economy and markets to have a better understanding of who the survivors are going to be. I think commercial real estate problems are going to push asset quality and stock prices lower as we enter the fourth quarter. When this happens, we will see another round of capital-raising that will also weigh heavily on share prices. That will be the time to buy into small and regional banks. Buying them below book with reinforced balance sheets and steadier collateral values will be a life-changing opportunity. The waiting is frustrating, but the rewards will more than compensate for the patience. I cannot wait to look at my sheets and see dozens of quality banks like TCF Financial I'm also starting to home in on debt and preferred stocks from real estate investment trusts (REITs). This is another area where companies have done everything they possibly could to shore up balance sheets and simply survive the real estate collapse. Workforces have been reduced and dividends cut or eliminated. Many REITs started paying dividends in stock to preserve cash. Those that could turned to the equity markets for new capital. Investors are dead wrong about the real estate markets firming up here, and there will be heavy selling when the realization strikes them. As prices move lower I am going to be carefully looking at income and senior securities at companies like Annally Capital This is an area where I am just starting to focus on. Over the next several weeks I will be really digging into the balance sheets and portfolios of the REITs. As the work progresses and I find opportunities with long-term upside and a margin of safety, I will of course report the findings here on RealMoney. In distressed debt and senior securities, I use a definition of "margin of safety" that is stolen from legendary vulture investor Marty Whitman -- I will be looking for securities where I think the loan will remain performing and I can purchase it for less than my estimate of recovery value in a bankruptcy of restructuring. I concentrate my attention on these two sectors -- small and regional banks and REITs -- as we put summer behind us. I think they have the potential for once-in-a-lifetime returns. Add them to my other themes of The other theme I love is Jim Cramer's Keep in mind that even with strong macro themes, the most important aspect of value investing remains absolute valuation and margin of safety. Our goal is not just to make money, but to survive so we can exploit the opportunities when they are priced for perfection. We are getting ever closer. Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Sunstone Hotels and TowneBank to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
At the time of publication, Melvin had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.Tim Melvin is a writer from Stevensville, Maryland, who spent 20 years a stockbroker, the last 15 as a Vice President of Investments with a regional firm in the Mid Atlantic area. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Melvin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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