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| ARB > SEC Filings for ARB > Form 10-Q on 4-Nov-2009 | All Recent SEC Filings |
4-Nov-2009
Quarterly Report
• successfully commercialize our Portable People MeterTM service;
• successfully manage the impact on our business of the current economic downturn generally, and in the advertising market, in particular, including, without limitation, the insolvency of any of our customers or the impact of such downturn on our customers' ability to fulfill their payment obligations to us;
• successfully maintain and promote industry usage of our services, a critical mass of broadcaster encoding, and the proper understanding of our audience measurement services and methodology in light of governmental actions, including investigation, regulation, legislation or litigation, customer or industry group activism, or adverse community or public relations efforts;
• compete with companies that may have financial, marketing, sales, technical or other advantages over us;
• successfully design, recruit and maintain PPM panels that appropriately balance research quality, panel size and operational cost;
• successfully develop, implement and fund initiatives designed to increase sample quality;
• complete the Media Rating Council, Inc. ("MRC") audits of our local market PPM ratings services in a timely manner and successfully obtain and/or maintain MRC accreditation for our audience measurement business;
• renew contracts with key customers;
• successfully execute our business strategies, including entering into potential acquisition, joint-venture or other material third-party agreements;
• effectively manage the impact, if any, of any further ownership shifts in the radio and advertising agency industries;
• effectively respond to rapidly changing technological needs of our customer base, including creating new proprietary software systems, such as software systems to support our cell-phone-only sampling plans, and new customer services that meet these needs in a timely manner;
• successfully manage the impact on costs of data collection due to lower respondent cooperation in surveys, consumer trends including a trend toward increasing incidence of cell-phone-only households, privacy concerns, technology changes, and/or government regulations;
• successfully develop and implement technology solutions to encode and/or measure new forms of media content and delivery, and advertising in an increasingly competitive environment;
• successfully integrate our new management team;
• realize the anticipated savings from the Company's workforce and expense reduction program; and
• provide appropriate levels of operational capacity and funding to support the more labor intensive identification and recruitment of cell-phone-only households into our panels and samples.
There are a number of additional important factors that could cause actual
events or our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such
forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, the factors set forth
in "ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
December 31, 2008, and elsewhere, and any subsequent periodic or current reports
filed by us with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC").
In addition, any forward-looking statements represent our expectations only
as of the day we filed this Quarterly Report with the SEC and should not be
relied upon as representing our expectations as of any subsequent date. While we
may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we
specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our expectations change.
Overview
We are a leading media and marketing information services firm primarily
serving radio, cable television, advertising agencies, advertisers, retailers,
out-of-home media, online media and, through our Scarborough Research joint
venture with The Nielsen Company ("Nielsen"), broadcast television and print
media. We currently provide four main services:
• measuring and estimating radio audiences in local markets in the United
States;
• measuring and estimating radio audiences of network radio programs and commercials;
• providing software used for accessing and analyzing our media audience and marketing information data; and
• providing consumer, shopping, and media usage information services.
Historically, our quantitative radio audience measurement business and
related software have accounted for a substantial majority of our revenue. For
the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2009, and 2008, our quantitative
radio audience measurement business and related software accounted for
approximately 93 percent and 92 percent of our revenue, respectively. We expect
that for the year ending December 31, 2009, our quantitative radio audience
measurement business and related software licensing will account for
approximately 90 percent of our revenue.
Quarterly fluctuations in these percentages are reflective of the seasonal
delivery schedule of our quantitative radio audience measurement business and
our Scarborough revenues. For further information regarding seasonality trends,
see "Seasonality."
While we expect that our quantitative radio audience measurement business and
related software licensing will continue to account for the majority of our
revenue for the foreseeable future, we are actively seeking opportunities to
diversify our revenue base by, among other things, leveraging the investment we
have made in our PPM technology and exploring applications of the technology
beyond our domestic radio audience measurement business.
We are in the process of executing our previously announced plan to
commercialize progressively our PPM radio ratings service in the largest United
States radio markets, which we currently anticipate will result in
commercialization of the service in 49 local markets by December 2010 (the "PPM
Markets"). We may continue to update the expected timing of commercialization
and the composition of the PPM Markets from time to time. According to our
analysis of BIA's 2009 Investing in Radio Market Report, those broadcasters with
whom we have entered into multi-year PPM agreements account for most of the
total radio advertising dollars in the PPM markets. These agreements generally
provide for a higher fee for PPM-based ratings than we charge for Diary-based
ratings. As a result, we expect that the percentage of our revenues derived from
our radio ratings and related software is likely to slightly increase as we
commercialize the PPM service.
Nielsen's signing of Cumulus Media Inc. ("Cumulus") and Clear Channel
Communications, Inc. ("Clear Channel") as customers for its radio ratings
service in certain small to mid-sized markets was a primary factor in a
$4.6 million decline in our revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2009
and is anticipated to adversely impact our expected revenue by approximately
$5.0 million for all of 2009, and $10.0 million per year thereafter. Due to the
impact of the current economic downturn on anticipated sales of discretionary
services and renewals of agreements to provide ratings services, as well as the
high penetration of our current services in the radio station business, we
expect that our future annual organic rate of revenue growth from our
quantitative Diary-based radio ratings services will be slower than historical
trends.
We continue to operate in a highly challenging business environment. Our
future performance will be impacted by our ability to address a variety of
challenges and opportunities in the markets and industries we serve, including
our ability to continue to maintain and improve the quality of our PPM service,
and manage increased costs for data collection, arising from, among other
things, increased numbers of cell-phone-only households, which are more
expensive for us to recruit than are households with landline telephones. Our
goal is to obtain and/or maintain MRC accreditation in all of our PPM Markets,
and develop and implement effective and efficient technological solutions to
measure multimedia and advertising.
Protecting and supporting our existing customer base, and ensuring our
services are competitive from a price, quality and service perspective are
critical components to these overall goals, although there can be no guarantee
that we will be successful in our efforts.
Diary Trends and Initiatives
MRC Accreditation. The continuous, condensed, and standard Radio Market
Reports and certain other radio ratings data produced by our Diary service is
accredited by the MRC in the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.
Quality Improvement Initiatives. Response rates are an important measure of
our effectiveness in obtaining consent from persons to participate in our
surveys. Another measure often used by clients to assess quality in our ratings
is sample proportionality, which refers to how well the distribution of the
sample for any individual survey matches the distribution of the population in
the local market. It has become increasingly difficult and more costly for us to
obtain consent from persons to participate in our surveys. We must achieve a
level of both sample proportionality and response rates sufficient to maintain
confidence in our ratings, the support of the industry and accreditation by the
MRC. Overall response rates for all survey research have declined over the past
several decades, and Arbitron has been adversely impacted. We have worked to
address this decline through several initiatives, including various survey
incentive programs. If response rates continue to decline or the costs of
recruitment initiatives significantly increase, our radio audience measurement
business could be adversely affected. We believe that additional expenditures
will be required in the future to research and test new measures associated with
improving response rates and sample proportionality. As part of our continuous
improvement program, we intend to continue to invest in Diary service quality
enhancements in 2009 and beyond. For example, in an effort to better target our
Diary keeper premium expenditures to key buying demographics of the users of our
estimates, we reduced the premium we pay to households where all members are
aged 55 or older and redirected those premiums to households containing persons
aged 18-34, beginning with the Spring 2009 Diary survey.
We use a measure known as Designated Delivery Index ("DDI") to measure our
performance in delivering sample targets based on how the number of persons
actually in the sample compares to our target number of persons in a particular
demographic. We define DDI as the actual sample size achieved for a given
demographic indexed against the target sample size for that demographic
(multiplied by 100).
Beginning with the Spring 2009 survey, we added cell-phone-only households to
the Diary sample in 151 Diary markets using a hybrid methodology of
address-based recruitment for cell-phone-only households, while using random
digit dialing ("RDD") recruitment for households with landline phone service. In
August 2009, we announced that cell-phone-only sampling had increased the
average DDI for Persons aged 18-34 by approximately 25 percent in the 151 Diary
markets that included cell-phone-only households in the Spring 2009 survey
sample. Beginning with the Fall 2009 survey, we intend to expand cell-phone-only
sampling to all Diary markets in the continental United States, Alaska and
Hawaii. We also intend to increase our sample target for cell-phone-only
households in Diary markets from ten percent of total households, as achieved in
the Spring 2009 survey, to an average of 15 percent of total households across
all Diary markets by year-end 2010.
As noted above, it is increasingly expensive for us to recruit
cell-phone-only households. Because we intend to increase the number of
cell-phone-only households in our samples, we believe this quality improvement
initiative will significantly increase our costs.
PPM Trends and Initiatives
MRC Accreditation. In January 2007, the MRC accredited the
average-quarter-hour, time-period radio ratings data produced by our PPM radio
ratings service in the Houston-Galveston local market. In January 2009, the MRC
accredited the average-quarter-hour, time-period radio ratings data produced by
our PPM radio ratings service in the Riverside-San Bernardino local market.
Based on audits completed during 2007, and our replies to the MRC's follow-up
queries, the MRC denied accreditation of the PPM radio ratings services in
Philadelphia, New York, Nassau-Suffolk (Long Island), and
Middlesex-Somerset-Union in January 2008. During 2008, the MRC reaudited the PPM
radio ratings service in those markets. The results of those reaudits, together
with additional information provided by Arbitron, were shared with the MRC PPM
audit subcommittee in late 2008. As of the date of this Form 10-Q, the denial
status remains in place, and the data produced by the PPM radio ratings services
in the Philadelphia, New York, Nassau-Suffolk (Long Island), and
Middlesex-Somerset-Union local markets remain unaccredited by the MRC. Among
other things, the MRC identified response rates, compliance rates, and
differential compliance rates as concerns it had with the PPM service in these
local markets.
The MRC has audited the local market PPM methodology and execution in all
other PPM Markets where we have commercialized the service, including Los
Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, San Jose, Atlanta, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Detroit,
Washington D.C., Boston, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood, Seattle-Tacoma,
Phoenix, Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Diego, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, St.
Louis, Denver-Boulder, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The MRC has neither granted nor
denied accreditation for these markets. The data produced by the PPM radio
ratings services in each of these markets remain unaccredited by the MRC.
Commercialization. We may continue to update the timing of commercialization
and the composition of the PPM Markets from time to time. We currently utilize
our PPM radio ratings service to produce audience estimates in 25 United States
local radio markets, which represent more than 50% of the total advertising
dollars in the U.S. according to our analysis of BIA's 2009 Investing in Radio
Market Report.
Arbitron PPM Markets commercialized since the second quarter of 2009:
No. of PPM Data Release
Market Markets Data Month Month
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood,
Seattle-Tacoma, Phoenix,
Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Diego 5 June 2009 July 2009
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,
St. Louis, Denver-Boulder,
Baltimore, Pittsburgh 5 September 2009 October 2009
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We currently intend to commercialize the PPM radio ratings service in eight
additional local markets during the fourth quarter of 2009.
While there is the possibility that the pace of commercialization of the PPM
radio ratings service could be slowed, we believe that the PPM radio ratings
service is both a viable replacement for our Diary-based radio ratings service
and a significant enhancement to our audience estimates in major radio markets,
and it is an important component of our anticipated future growth. If the pace
of the commercialization of our PPM radio ratings service is modified, revenue
increases that we expect to receive related to the service would also be
adjusted.
Commercialization of our PPM radio ratings service has and will continue to
require a substantial financial investment. As we anticipated, our efforts to
support the commercialization of our PPM radio ratings service have had a
material negative impact on our results of operations. The amount of capital
required for deployment of our PPM radio ratings service and the impact on our
results of operations will be greatly affected by the speed of the
commercialization. We anticipate that PPM costs and expenses for each PPM Market
will generally accelerate six to nine months in advance of the commercialization
of the service in each PPM Market as we build the panels. These costs are
incremental to the costs associated with our Diary-based ratings service.
Quality Improvement Initiatives. As we have commercialized the PPM radio
ratings service in several PPM Markets, we have experienced and expect to
continue to experience challenges in the operation of the PPM radio ratings
service similar to those we face in the Diary-based service, including several
of the challenges related to sample proportionality and response rates mentioned
above. We expect to continue to implement additional measures to address these
challenges. In connection with our interactions with several governmental
entities, we have announced a series of commitments concerning our PPM radio
ratings services that we have agreed to implement over the next several years.
We believe these commitments, which we refer to as our "continuous improvement"
initiatives, are consistent with our ongoing efforts to obtain and maintain MRC
accreditation and to generally improve our radio ratings services. These
initiatives will likely require expenditures that may be material in the
aggregate.
On August 13, 2009, we announced a plan to increase our sample target for
cell-phone-only households in all PPM Markets to an average of 20 percent of
total households across all PPM Markets by year-end 2010. We have since
implemented a hybrid method of using an address-based sample frame for
cell-phone-only households together with an RDD sample frame to recruit landline
households. Under this new methodology, we are using auto-dialers to contact
cell-phone-only households for recruitment into our panels.
As noted above, it is increasingly expensive for us to recruit
cell-phone-only households. Because we intend to increase the number of
cell-phone-only households in our panels, we believe this quality improvement
initiative will increase our cost of revenue.
On October 2, 2009, we announced implementation details of our plan, first
disclosed in July 2008, to increase the total PPM sample size for Persons aged
12 and older by approximately 10 percent in the aggregate across all PPM Markets
together with implementation of increased minimum sample sizes in all PPM
Markets by mid-year 2011.
International. On August 31, 2009, BBM Canada, the media ratings consortium
in Canada, launched the world's largest combined panel for television and radio
audience measurement using our PPM technology. Following a competitive process,
BBM Canada chose our joint solution with TNS Media Research to support its
multi-media measurement initiative in April 2008.
Television Suite of Audience Measurement Services
On June 23, 2009, we announced the creation of ARB-TV, a new suite of
audience measurement services designed to improve visibility into away-from-home
television audiences for media companies and advertisers. By leveraging the
mobility and utility of our PPM technologies, we believe the ARB-TV analytical
tool can complement existing data services, offers media greater insight into
what constitutes their total audience, and help advertisers plan how to reach
that audience. The ARB-TV service is not part of a regular syndicated rating
service accredited by the MRC, and we have not requested accreditation. Arbitron
does provide one or more syndicated services that are accredited by the MRC.
General Economic Conditions
Our clients derive most of their revenue from transactions involving the sale
or purchase of advertising. During the challenging economic times we are
presently experiencing, advertisers have reduced advertising expenditures,
impacting advertising agencies and media companies. This, as well as the general
economic downturn and credit conditions, has had a material impact on our
customers, which has had a material and negative effect on our sales and renewal
activity.
Since September 2008, we have experienced an increase in the average number
of days our sales have been outstanding before we have received payment, which
has resulted in a material increase in trade accounts receivable as compared to
historical trends. If the economic downturn expands or is sustained for an
extended period into the future, it may also lead to increased incidence of
customers' inability to pay their accounts, an increase in our provision for
doubtful accounts, and a further increase in collection cycles for accounts
receivable or insolvency of our customers.
We depend on a limited number of key customers for our radio ratings services
and related software. For example, in 2008, Clear Channel represented 18 percent
of our total revenue. Because many of our largest customers own and operate
radio stations in markets that we expect to transition to PPM measurement, we
expect that our dependence on our largest customers will continue for the
foreseeable future. Additionally, if one or more key customers owning radio
stations in a number of markets do not renew all or part of their contracts, we
could experience a significant decrease in our operating results.
Restructuring, Reorganization and Expense Reduction Plan
During the first quarter of 2009, we implemented a restructuring,
reorganization, and expense reduction plan (the "Plan"). Part of the Plan
included reducing our full-time workforce by approximately ten percent. During
the nine months ended September 30, 2009, we incurred $10.1 million of
restructuring charges, related principally to severance, termination benefits,
retirement plan settlement charges, outplacement support and certain other
expenses that were incurred as part of the Plan.
In accordance with our retirement plan provisions, participants may elect, at
their option, to receive their retirement benefits either in a lump sum payment
or an annuity. If the lump sum distributions paid during the plan
year exceed the total of the service cost and interest cost for the plan year,
any unrecognized gain or loss in the plan should be recognized for the pro rata
portion equal to the percentage reduction of the projected benefit obligation.
During the third quarter 2009, the aggregate of lump sum distribution elections
by a number of pension plan participants who were terminated as part of the
Plan, resulted in the recognition of a $1.8 million non-cash charge for the
settlement related to two of the Company's retirement plans. As a result of this
settlement charge, we estimate that the total restructuring charge for the full
year ending December 31, 2009, including the non-cash settlement charge, will be
approximately $10.0 million.
Legal Expenses
During 2008 and the nine months ended September 30, 2009, we incurred
approximately $8.6 million in legal costs and expenses in connection with two
securities-law civil actions and a governmental interaction that commenced
during 2008, relating primarily to the commercialization of our PPM radio
ratings service. We believe approximately $6.8 million of the expenses incurred
during the nine months ended September 30, 2009, are probable for recovery under
our Directors and Officers insurance policy. As of September 30, 2009,
$2.0 million in insurance reimbursements related to these legal actions were
received. We are also involved in other legal matters for which we do not expect
that the legal costs and expenses will be recoverable through insurance. We can
provide no assurance that we will not incur significant net legal costs and
expenses during the remainder of 2009. For further information regarding these
legal costs, see "-Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" below.
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
Critical accounting policies and estimates are those that are both important
to the presentation of our financial position or results of operations, and
require our most difficult, complex or subjective judgments.
We capitalize software development costs with respect to significant internal
use software initiatives or enhancements. The costs are capitalized from the
time that the preliminary project stage is completed and management considers it
probable that the software will be used to perform the function intended, until
the time the software is placed in service for its intended use. Once the
software is placed in service, the capitalized costs are amortized over periods
of three to five years. We perform an assessment quarterly to determine if it is
probable that all capitalized software will be used to perform its intended
function. If an impairment exists, the software cost is written down to
estimated fair value. As of September 30, 2009, and December 31, 2008, our
capitalized software developed for internal use had carrying amounts of
$24.2 million and $22.6 million, respectively, including $13.8 million and
$13.3 million, respectively, of software related to the PPM service.
We use the asset and liability method of accounting for income taxes. Under
this method, income tax expense is recognized for the amount of taxes payable or
refundable for the current year and for deferred tax assets and liabilities for
the future tax consequences of events that have been recognized in an entity's
financial statements or tax returns. We must make assumptions, judgments and
estimates to determine the current provision for income taxes and also deferred
tax assets and liabilities and any valuation allowance to be recorded against a
deferred tax asset. Our assumptions, judgments and estimates relative to the
current provision for income taxes take into account current tax laws,
interpretation of current tax laws and possible outcomes of current and future
audits conducted by domestic and foreign tax authorities. Changes in tax law or
interpretation of tax laws and the resolution of current and future tax audits
could significantly impact the amounts provided for income taxes in the
consolidated financial statements. Our assumptions, judgments and estimates
. . .
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