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SLP > SEC Filings for SLP > Form 10-Q on 15-Jul-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for SIMULATIONS PLUS INC


15-Jul-2009

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis or Plan of Operations

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, or the "Report," are "forward-looking statements." These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the plans, objectives, expectations and intentions of Simulations Plus, Inc., a California corporation (referred to in this Report as the "Company") and other statements contained in this Report that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements in this Report or hereafter included in other publicly available documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the "Commission," reports to our stockholders and other publicly available statements issued or released by us involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause our actual results, performance (financial or operating) or achievements to differ from the future results, performance (financial or operating) or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such future results are based upon management's best estimates based upon current conditions and the most recent results of operations. When used in this Report, the words "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "believe," "seek," "estimate" and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements, because these forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. There are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and other factors.

General

BUSINESS

Simulations Plus, Inc. (the "Company" or "Simulations Plus", or "we" or "our") and its wholly owned subsidiary, Words+, Inc. ("Words+") produce different types of products: (1) Simulations Plus, incorporated in 1996, develops and produces software for use in pharmaceutical research and for education, and also provides contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry, and (2) Words+, founded in 1981, produces computer software and specialized hardware for use by persons with disabilities. For the purposes of this document, we sometimes refer to the two businesses as "Simulations Plus" when referring to the business that is primarily pharmaceutical software and services, and "Words+" when referring to the business that is primarily assistive technologies for persons with disabilities.

SIMULATIONS PLUS

PRODUCTS
We currently offer four software products for pharmaceutical research: ADMET Predictor™, ClassPharmer™, DDDPlus™, and GastroPlus™.

ADMET Predictor
Every drug molecule that fails in clinical trials, and every approved drug that gets withdrawn from the market, was bad from the time it was first drawn by a chemist or generated by a computer. They don't become bad later. Thus, the ability to predict unsuitable characteristics of new molecules offers the promise of avoiding costly programs that end up in late-stage failures. Although not every failure mode can be predicted in this manner, those that can provide a means to reduce the number of failures that occur after years of work and millions of dollars have been spent.


ADMET (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion and Toxicity) Predictor consists of a library of statistically significant numerical models that predict various properties of chemical compounds from just their molecular structures. Our models are built using a machine learning approach that is based primarily on artificial neural network ensembles (groups of artificial neural networks) that has been demonstrated to provide the most accurate prediction capabilities in any commercially available software today.

This capability means a chemist can merely draw a molecule diagram and get estimates of these properties, even though the molecule has never existed. Drug companies continually search through millions of such "virtual" molecular structures as they attempt to find new drugs. It has been estimated that there are somewhere on the order of 1062 possible drug-like molecular structures. That is such a huge number that it is difficult to comprehend. If we could evaluate a billion molecules (109) per second, it would take 1053 seconds to evaluate them all -- that's about 1045 years. The age of the universe is said to be less than 1010 years. Clearly, we will never be able to make and test evaluate all of them, so computerized methods are the only hope to even scratch the surface of the total "chemical space" for potential pharmaceutical products.

The vast majority of drug-like molecules are not suitable as medicines for various reasons. Some have such low solubility that they will not dissolve well, some have such low permeability through the intestinal wall that they will not be absorbed well as an oral dose (about 80% of medications), some degrade so quickly that they are not stable enough to have a useful shelf life, some bind to proteins (like albumin) in blood to such a high extent that little unbound drug is available to reach the target, and many will be toxic in various ways. Identification of such properties in the computer enables researchers to eliminate poor compounds without spending time and money to make them and run experiments to identify their weaknesses. Today, many molecules can be eliminated on the basis of computer predictions provided by ADMET Predictor.

Several independent studies have been published that compare the accuracy of software programs like ADMET Predictor. In each case, ADMET Predictor has been ranked first in accuracy (it was ranked second in one study, but that study was later redone with a more difficult set of test compounds and a newer version of ADMET Predictor, and it was then ranked first). Not one other software product was consistently in the top 4 in these studies. This is a remarkable accomplishment, considering the greater size and resources of many of our competitors.

ADMET Predictor includes ADMET Modeler™. ADMET Modeler was first released in July of 2003 as a separate product, and was integrated into ADMET Predictor in 2006. This powerful program automates the training of the predictive models used in ADMET Predictor, so they are produced in a small fraction of the time once required. For example, new toxicity models were developed in a matter of a few hours once we completed the tedious effort of "cleaning up" the databases (which often contain a significant number of errors). Prior to the availability of ADMET Modeler, we would have needed as much as three months for each new model after cleaning the databases to obtain similar results.

Pharmaceutical companies spend enormous amounts of money conducting a wide variety of experiments on new molecules each year. Using such data to build predictive models provides a second return on this investment; however, in the past, model-building has traditionally been a tedious activity performed by specialists. With ADMET Modeler integrated into ADMET Predictor, scientists without model-building experience can now use their own experimental data to quickly create high-quality predictive models.


During this reporting period, improvement of ADMET Predictor/Modeler has continued. Under a funded collaboration with Pfizer, we added the capability for scientists to run large molecular libraries through ADMET Predictor to generate the predicted dose amount that would be required to achieve an effective concentration level for each potential new drug. This capability requires the integration of the customer's experimental data with predictions when no experiments have been run, so that the effects of a wide variety of properties that interact to result in a plasma concentration can be predicted. This is accomplished by the integration of a small GastroPlus engine within ADMET Predictor that runs the simulations needed to estimate plasma concentrations.

We expect to release the next version in late July 2009. This new version will also include a new set of toxicity predictions, expanding the program's capabilities into this important, and almost unlimited area (because there are so many kinds of toxicities). Every new predicted property that can be used to help triage bad compounds early in discovery has the potential to save large amounts of time and money.

ADMET Predictor is compatible with the popular Pipeline Pilot™ software offered by SciTegic, a subsidiary of Accelrys. This software serves as a tool to allow chemists to run several different software programs in series to accomplish a set workflow for large numbers of molecules. In early discovery, chemists often work with hundreds of thousands or millions of "virtual" molecules - molecules that exist only in a computer. The chemist tries to decide which few molecules from these large "libraries" should be made and tested. Using Pipeline Pilot with ADMET Predictor (and ClassPharmer - see below), perhaps in conjunction with other software products, the chemist can create and screen very large libraries faster and more efficiently than running each program by itself.

In August 2008, we had resubmitted a Phase II NIH SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) grant proposal. After the end of this reporting period, we were advised that this grant will be funded at a level of $375,000. We have continued this work under our own funding, and we've demonstrated further improvements in predictive capability, which we are incorporating into the next release of ADMET Predictor.

ClassPharmer
ClassPharmer continues to evolve into an ever more powerful tool for medicinal and computational chemists. Coupled with ADMET Predictor, the two programs provide an unmatched capability for chemists to search through huge libraries of compounds to find the most interesting classes and molecules that are active against a particular target. In addition, ClassPharmer with ADMET Predictor can take an interesting molecule and generate high quality analogs (i.e., similar new molecules) using several different algorithms to ensure that the new molecules are both active against the target while also being acceptable in a variety of ADMET (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion and Toxicity) properties.

Improvements during the third quarter were focused on incorporating more new features requested by our users around the world, as well as adding other new capabilities identified in-house. We released ClassPharmer 4.6 in January 2009, and we expect another release in the near future with a new "scaffold hopping" feature. This feature enables chemists to substitute the core (scaffold) portion of a molecule while retaining other atoms around the periphery. In previous versions, ClassPharmer had only the inverse capability - to replace the atoms surrounding the core. Scaffold hopping has been a technique with growing interest among chemists, and we expect that added to ClassPharmer already best-in-class performance, this new capability will attract additional ClassPharmer users.


ClassPharmer's molecule design capabilities provide ways for chemists to rapidly generate large numbers of novel chemical structures based on intelligence from compounds that have already been synthesized and tested, or from basic chemical reactions selected by the user. Export of results is available in Microsoft Excel™ format as well as other convenient file formats requested by users.

DDDPlus
DDDPlus sales have continued to grow as formulation scientists continue to recognize the value of this one-of-a-kind simulation software in their work. Improvements have been added to further enhance the value of this product, including numerous user convenience features have been added, as well as more sophisticated handling of dosage forms that incorporate multiple polymers for controlled release. Work on the next update of DDDPlus has included making the program match the user interface in our flagship GastroPlus product as closely as possible since many formulation scientists can use both programs. Additions to the programs capabilities and built-in databases for excipient ingredients and dissolution media have also been made. A major new release of DDDPlus was released in late April 2009.

GastroPlus
GastroPlus continues to enjoy its "gold standard" status in the industry for its class of simulation software. It is used from early drug discovery through preclinical development and into early clinical trials. At an international conference in Shanghai, China, in May 2008, Pfizer scientists presented a scientific poster describing a two-year study in which all four commercially available PBPK (physiologically based pharmacokinetics) simulation programs on the market were compared for their ability to predict human pharmacokinetics from preclinical (animal and in vitro) data. The study was divided into two arms: intravenous and oral dosing. GastroPlus was ranked first in both arms. No other software was ranked consistently second or third. This independent evaluation, which was accomplished via analysis of 21 Pfizer proprietary compounds with data from early discovery all the way through human trials, provides the strongest possible validation of the superiority of GastroPlus in pharmaceutical research and development.

The information provided through GastroPlus simulations guides project decisions in various ways. Among the kinds of knowledge gained through such simulations are: (1) the best "first dose in human" for a new drug prior to Phase I trials,
(2) whether a potential new drug compound is likely to be absorbed at high enough levels to achieve the desired blood concentrations needed for effective therapy, (3) whether the absorption process is affected by certain enzymes and transporter proteins in the intestinal tract that may cause the amount of drug reaching the blood to be very different from one region of the intestine to another, (4) when certain properties of a new compound are probably adequately estimated through computer ("in silico") predictions or simple experiments rather than through more expensive and time-consuming in vitro or animal experiments, (5) what the likely variations in blood and tissue concentration levels of a new drug would be in a large population, in different age groups or in different ethnic groups, and (6) whether a new formulation for an existing approved drug is likely to demonstrate "bioequivalence" (equivalent blood concentration versus time) to the currently marketed dosage form in a human trial.

In May 2008 we announced the current release of GastroPlus (version 6.0) - a major new release that includes several important improvements to the program. We improved the PKPlus™ Module to enable it to fit pharmacokinetic models to multiple data sets, including both intravenous and oral dosage forms. The feedback we have received from customers for that change has been enthusiastic. We made further improvements to the new sophisticated kidney model to simulate how drugs are cleared in urine. We added numerous convenience features requested by our users. We also added the ability of the program to track metabolites of a parent drug, including metabolites of metabolites, to as many levels as desired. This is a significant new capability because it allows the user to predict how much of each metabolite will be generated, and into which tissues the metabolite is likely to partition. Some metabolites can be therapeutically active, while others can be toxic, so knowing how much is produced and where it goes is valuable information to assess the likelihood of both therapeutic and adverse effects.


Since last May, the improvements to GastroPlus have been many and complex. Most of these developments were funded through our funded collaborations with three of the top five pharmaceutical companies in the world. We are adding ocular delivery of drugs under one collaboration, pulmonary delivery under another, and drug-drug interaction analysis under a third. These capabilities will further extend the commanding lead GastroPlus enjoys in the marketplace.

Our marketing intelligence and reorder history indicate that GastroPlus continues to dominate its market niche in the number of users worldwide. In addition to virtually every major pharmaceutical company, licenses include government agencies in the U.S and abroad, a growing number of smaller pharmaceutical and biotech companies, generic drug companies, and drug delivery companies (companies that design the tablet or capsule for a drug compound that was developed by another company). Although these companies are smaller than the pharmaceutical giants, they can also save considerable time and money through simulation. We believe this part of the industry, which includes many hundreds of companies, represents major growth potential for GastroPlus. Our experience has been that the number of new companies adopting GastroPlus has been growing steadily, adding to the base of annual licenses each year.

CONTRACT RESEARCH AND CONSULTING SERVICES
Our recognized world-class expertise in oral absorption and pharmacokinetics is evidenced by the fact that our staff members have been speakers or presenters at over 50 prestigious scientific meetings worldwide in the past five years. We frequently conduct contracted studies for customers who prefer to have studies run by our scientists rather than to license our software and train someone to use it. The demand for our consulting services has been increasing steadily, and we expect this trend to continue. Long-term collaborations and shorter-term consulting contracts serve both to showcase our technologies and as a way to build and strengthen customer relationships.

WORDS+ SUBSIDIARY

PRODUCTS
Our wholly owned subsidiary, Words+, Inc., has been an industry pioneer and technology leader for over 27 years in introducing and improving augmentative and alternative communication and computer access software and devices for disabled persons. We intend to continue to be at the forefront of the development of new products. We will continue to enhance our major software products, E Z Keys™ and Say-it! SAM™, as well as our line of hardware products. We are also considering acquisitions of other products, businesses and companies that are complementary to our existing augmentative and alternative communication and computer access business lines. We acquired the Say-it! SAM technologies from SAM Communications, LLC of San Diego in December 2003. This acquisition gave us our smallest, lightest augmentative communication system, which is based on a Hewlett-Packard iPAQ personal digital assistant (PDA). PDA-based communication devices have been very successful in the augmentative communication market, and this technology purchase enabled us to move into this market segment faster and at lower cost than developing the product ourselves. SAM-based products now account for a significant share of Words+ revenues. Since the acquisition of the Say-it! SAM technologies, we have continued to add new functionality to the SAM software and to offer it on additional hardware platforms.


During last fiscal year, after the introduction of the newest Say-it! SAM version late in the first quarter, sales of our new PDA-based (personal-digital-assistant-based) Say-it! SAM augmentative communication device set new records, contributing nicely to the highest quarter in our history in the third quarter. Just before the end of the last quarter we introduced the Conversa™. This product offers the most human-sounding synthetic speech output available in the marketplace utilizing AT&T synthetic voices and our new custom designed Sound Pack. To quote one young adult client who changed to the Conversa after using a variety of augmentative communication devices from our competitors for most of her life "I actually sound like a regular woman for the first time in my life!" We are adding the Sound Pack design to other products.

We have clients utilizing new access methods such as the Fiber Optic Switch that is a new part of our product line, a new EMG (muscle signal) switch called Libertas and eye gaze systems from a variety of manufacturers, and we are regularly evaluating and interfacing new access technology.

Results of Operations

Comparison of Three Months Ended May 31, 2009 and May 31, 2008.

The following table sets forth our consolidated statements of operations (in
thousands) and the percentages that such items bear to net sales:

                                                  Three Months Ended
                                           05/31/09                05/31/08
Net sales                             $ 2,713        100%     $ 2,968        100%
Cost of sales                             543        20.0         624        21.0
Gross profit                            2,170        80.0       2,344        79.0
Selling, general and administrative       989        36.5         942        31.7
Research and development                  334        12.3         222         7.5
Total operating expenses                1,323        48.8       1,164        39.2
Income from operations                    847        31.2       1,180        39.8
Other income                               41         1.5           8         0.3
Net income before taxes                   888        32.7       1,188        40.0
(Provision for) income taxes             (319 )     (11.8 )      (435 )     (14.7 )
Net income                            $   569       20.9%     $   753       25.4%

Net Sales
Consolidated net sales decreased $255,000, or 8.6%, to $2,713,000 in the third fiscal quarter of 2009 (3QFY09) from $2,968,000 in the third fiscal quarter of 2008 (3QFY08). Our sales from pharmaceutical and educational software increased approximately $10,000, or 0.5%; and our Words+, Inc. subsidiary's sales decreased approximately $265,000, or 26.7%, for the quarter. We attribute the increase in pharmaceutical software sales primarily to new software licensing, new customers, and sale of new modules to existing customers as well as increases in the number of licenses with existing customers, and our funded collaborations with large pharmaceutical companies that outweighed the loss of a few small customers and a decline in renewal license revenues of approximately $124,000 that resulted in an order from one large pharmaceutical company that was received late, and so was unlocked and its revenue recognized in the 4th fiscal quarter vs. the 3rd quarter.


We attribute the decrease in Words+ sales primarily to a decrease in "Freedom" products with "EZKeys" or "Say-it! SAM" software, which are based on Windows XP systems, and accessories to go with those products. Another factor is due to decline in revenue from Say-it! SAM" handheld speech output devices. In 3QFY08, we had significant revenues from our "Say-it! SAM" speech output device kits without PDA hardware for an overseas wholesaler; however we did not have such an order in 3QFY09.

Cost of Sales
Consolidated cost of sales decreased $81,000, or 12.9%, to $543,000 in 3QFY09 from $624,000 in 3QFY08. Cost of sales as a percentage of revenue for 3QFY09 slightly decreased by 1.0% to 20.0% from 21.0% in 3QFY08. For Simulations Plus, cost of sales increased $25,000, or 11.8%. As a percentage of revenue, cost of sales also increased to 12.0% in 3QFY09 from 10.8% in 3QFY08. A significant portion of cost of sales for pharmaceutical software products is the systematic amortization of capitalized software development costs, which is an independent fixed cost rather than a variable cost related to sales. This amortization cost increased approximately $31,000, or 35.8%, in 3QFY09 compared with 3QFY08. Royalty expense, which is a variable cost, relates to sales of our GastroPlus core program as well as our new ADMET Predictor Enslein Metabolism module, decreased approximately $6,000, or 4.5%, in 3QFY09 compared with 3QFY08 due to decreases in sales from those products.

For Words+, cost of sales decreased $106,000, or 25.8%. As a percentage of revenue, cost of sales were very identical, 41.8% in 3QFY09 from 41.3% in 3QFY08.

Gross Profit
Consolidated gross profit decreased $174,000, or 7.4%, to $2,170,000 in 3QFY09 from $2,344,000 in 3QFY08. We attribute this decrease to an increase in sales of pharmaceutical software was not large enough to cover an increase in cost of goods sold in addition to a decrease in gross profit from Words+ products.

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses Consolidated selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased $47,000, or 5.0%, to $989,000 in 3QFY09 from $942,000 in 3QFY08. For Simulations Plus, SG&A increased $73,000, or 13.1%. As a percentage of sales, SG&A also increased to approximately 31.9% in 3QFY09 from approximately 28.4% in 3QFY08. The major increases in SG&A expenses were expanded trade show expenses, travel expenses, and consultant fees which outweighed decreases in commissions and professional fees.

For Words+, SG&A expenses decreased $26,000, or 6.9%, due primarily to decreases in commissions, depreciation, repairs, and contributions. These decreases outweighed increases in bad debts, depreciation, and salaries which are results of a consultant becoming an employee and 2 additional sales employees.

Research and Development
We incurred approximately $472,000 of consolidated research and development costs during 3QFY09. Of this amount, $138,000 was capitalized and $334,000 was expensed. In 3QFY08, we incurred $428,000 of consolidated research and development costs, of which $206,000 was capitalized and $222,000 was expensed. The increase of $44,000, or 10.3%, in total research and development expenditures from 3QFY08 to 3QFY09 was due primarily to salaries of new hires and salary increases to existing staff.


Other income (expense)
Net other income (expense) in 3QFY09 increased by $33,000, or 437.02%, to $41,000 in 3QFY09 from $8,000 in 3QFY08. This is due primarily to an unrecognized loss incurred in Auction Rate Securities (ARS) held in 3QFY08 with UBS Financial Services Inc. Those ARSs were redeemed at full face value plus interest in early 2009 so the loss never materialized.

Provision for Income Taxes
Our provision for income taxes decreased by $116,000, or 26.7%, to $319,000 in 3QFY09 from $435,000. As a percentage of net income, the tax is increased from 36.6% in 3QFY08 to 35.9% in 3QFY09 due primarily to our estimation of higher provision for income tax in fiscal year 2009.

Net Income
Consolidated net income decreased by $184,000, or 24.4%, to $569,000 in 3QFY09 from $753,000 in 3QFY08. We attribute this decrease in profit primarily to the increases in operating expenses, tax provision and a decrease in gross profit.

Comparison of Nine Months Ended May 31, 2009 and May 31, 2008.

The following table sets forth our consolidated statements of operations (in
thousands) and the percentages that such items bear to net sales:

                                                   Nine Months Ended
                                           05/31/09                05/31/08
Net sales                             $ 7,303        100%     $ 7,132        100%
Cost of sales                           1,622        22.2       1,565        21.9
. . .
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