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TGIC > SEC Filings for TGIC > Form 10-Q on 10-Nov-2008All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for TRIAD GUARANTY INC


10-Nov-2008

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results
of Operations
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations analyzes our consolidated financial condition, changes in financial position, and results of operations for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007. This discussion supplements Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, and should be read in conjunction with the interim financial statements and notes contained herein.
Certain of the statements contained in this release are "forward-looking statements" and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include estimates and assumptions related to economic, competitive, regulatory, operational and legislative developments. These forward-looking statements are subject to change, uncertainty and circumstances that are, in many instances, beyond our control and they have been made based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effect on us. Actual developments and their results could differ materially from those expected by us, depending on the outcome of a number of factors, including our ability to operate our business in run-off, the possibility of general economic and business conditions that are different than anticipated, legislative, regulatory, and other similar developments, changes in interest rates, employment rates, the housing market, the mortgage industry and the stock market, as well as the relevant factors described under "Risk Factors" and under "Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and in this report and other reports and statements that we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of circumstances or events that arise after the date the forward-looking statements are made.
Overview
Triad Guaranty Inc. is a holding company that historically has provided private mortgage insurance coverage in the United States through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Triad Guaranty Insurance Corporation ("Triad"). Triad ceased issuing new commitments for mortgage guaranty insurance coverage on July 15, 2008 and we are operating our business in run-off. The term "run-off", as used in this report, means writing no new mortgage insurance policies and continuing to service existing policies. Servicing includes: receiving premiums on policies that remain in force; cancelling coverage at the insured's request; terminating policies for non-payment of premium; working with borrowers in default to remedy the default and/or mitigate our loss; and settling all legitimate filed claims per our contractual obligations. Triad has agreed to a corrective order from the Illinois Division of Insurance that, among other items, includes restrictions on the distribution of funds by Triad.
We have historically provided Primary and Modified Pool mortgage guaranty insurance coverage on U.S. residential mortgage loans. We classify insurance as Primary when we are in the first loss position and the loan-to-value amount, or LTV, is 80% or greater when the loan is first insured. We classify all other insurance as Modified Pool. The majority of our Primary insurance has been delivered through the flow channel, which is defined as loans originated by lenders and submitted to us on a loan-by-loan basis. We have also historically provided mortgage insurance to lenders and investors who seek additional default protection (typically secondary coverage or on loans for which the individual borrower has greater than 20% equity), capital relief, and credit-enhancement on groups of loans that are sold in the secondary market. These transactions are referred to as our structured bulk channel business. Those individual loans in the structured bulk channel in which we are in the first loss position and the LTV ratio is greater than 80% are classified as Primary. All of our Modified Pool insurance has been delivered through the structured bulk channel.


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In run-off, our revenues principally consist of (a) earned premiums from flow insurance in force (net of reinsurance premiums ceded as part of our risk management strategies and net of refunds), (b) earned premiums from structured bulk insurance in force (net of refunds), and (c) investment income on invested assets. We also realize investment gains and investment losses on the sale and impairment of securities where the net gain or loss is reported as a component of revenue.
Our expenses consist primarily of (a) amounts paid on claims submitted,
(b) changes in reserves for estimated future claim payments on loans that are currently in default, (c) general and administrative costs of servicing existing policies, (d) other general business expenses, and (e) interest expense on long-term debt. Our future profitability depends largely on (a) the conditions of the housing, mortgage and capital markets that have a direct impact on default rates, mitigation efforts, cure rates and ultimately the amount of claims paid,
(b) the overall general state of the economy and job market, (c) persistency levels, (d) operating efficiencies, and (e) the level of investment yield, including realized gains and losses, on our investment portfolio. Persistency is an important metric in understanding our premium revenue. The longer a policy remains on our books, or "persists", the greater the amount of renewal premium revenue that we will derive from the policy. We define persistency as the amount of insurance in force at the twelve-month end of a financial reporting period as a percentage of the amount of insurance in force at the beginning of the period. Cancellations of policies originated during the past twelve months are not included in our calculation of persistency. Cancellations result primarily from the borrower refinancing or selling insured mortgaged residential properties, from policies being rescinded due to fraud, misrepresentation or other underwriting violations, from a servicer choosing to cancel the insurance, from the payment of a claim, and, to a lesser degree, from the borrower achieving prescribed equity levels, at which point the lender no longer requires mortgage guaranty insurance. Recent Developments
On August 5, 2008, we agreed to a corrective order with the Illinois Division of Insurance regarding restrictions on the distribution of funds from Triad to the holding company as well as enhanced reporting requirements and other matters. We have agreed to this corrective order as a result of the following events:
• On June 19, 2008, we announced that we had ended negotiations with Lightyear Capital LLC to form a new mortgage insurance company.

• We were suspended as an approved mortgage insurer by both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac effective June 19, 2008.

• We voluntarily ceased issuing commitments for mortgage insurance effective July 15, 2008 and entered into a voluntary run-off of our remaining insurance business.

• Our level of statutory capital was and remains significantly below the thresholds required by all state insurance departments to write mortgage guaranty insurance business.

Under the corrective order, we were required to submit a corrective plan to the Illinois Division of Insurance. The corrective plan we submitted included, among other items, a five-year statutory financial projection and a detailed description of our planned course of action to address our current financial condition. The Illinois Division of Insurance has reviewed our preliminary corrective plan and, based on initial discussions with the Division of Insurance, we resubmitted our revised corrective plan on October 10, 2008. We have received approval of the revised corrective plan from the Illinois Division of Insurance and are in the process of reviewing the revised plan with both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two primary beneficiaries of our insurance coverage.
In connection with the decision to transition Triad's business into run-off, we terminated all agreements with the rating agencies regarding the issuance of ratings for us and our subsidiaries, including Triad. As a result, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, Moody's Investor Services and Fitch Ratings withdrew their counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on Triad and on Triad Guaranty Inc.


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Effective July 18, 2008, Mark K. Tonnesen, our former President and Chief Executive Officer and a former director, resigned from those positions and subsequently retired on August 15, 2008. Also effective July 18, 2008, the Board of Directors appointed William T. Ratliff, III, our existing Chairman of the Board, as the interim President and Chief Executive Officer in addition to continuing his role as Chairman. On October 22, 2008, the Board of Directors appointed Kenneth W. Jones, who had been serving as our Chief Financial Officer, as our new President and Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Jones retained the responsibilities of Chief Financial Officer following his appointment as our President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Ratliff continues to serve as our Chairman of the Board following his relinquishment of the positions of President and Chief Executive Officer and will remain as an executive for the foreseeable future.
Recent adverse events in the real estate, mortgage and financial markets have been unprecedented. Steep declines in real estate values, tightening markets for obtaining capital or credit, and the liquidity concerns of financial institutions have created a significant amount of uncertainty in the capital markets, which has resulted in significant downward pressure on asset values, especially single family homes. Like many other financial companies, we have not been immune to these adverse developments and have seen our financial position and results of operations deteriorate.
At September 30, 2008, the Company reported a deficiency in assets of $28.4 million compared to stockholders' equity of $140.9 million at June 30, 2008 and $498.9 million at December 31, 2007. A deficiency in assets occurs when recorded liabilities exceed recorded assets. The deficiency in assets is the result of five straight quarters of losses totaling $615.7 million. The largest portion of our losses is the result of an increase in loss and loss adjustment expense reserves of over $900 million since June 30, 2007, the last quarter for which we reported a profit. In addition, we have paid in excess of $230 million of claims during these last five quarters, an amount greater than the total claims paid during the first 18 years of the Company's existence. At September 30, 2008 we had over $900 million of cash and invested assets, approximately $240 million more than at June 30, 2007. We reported $150.6 million of cash flow from operations for the first nine months of 2008, with $116.0 million derived from the early redemption of ten-year non-interest bearing United States Mortgage Guaranty Tax and Loss Bonds ("Tax and Loss Bonds") that will not be an ongoing source of cash. While we reported a deficiency in assets at September 30, 2008 for GAAP purposes, the underlying performance of our insurance portfolio was generally consistent with our run-off plan, which projects significant losses in the early stages of the plan. Additionally, we expect to recognize additional benefits resulting from the Modified Pool stop losses and captive reinsurance in future periods that have not been reflected in our financial statements. We expect to continue to report a deficiency in assets in future periods. While we do not expect the deficiency in net assets to have a direct impact on our operations, it could adversely impact our continued listing on The NASDAQ Stock Market.
In addition to the anticipated captive and structured benefits mentioned above, our GAAP financial statements do not reflect the net benefit from the $95 million Excess-of-Loss reinsurance treaty that is currently in arbitration. While we believe we will ultimately prevail in the arbitration proceedings, GAAP currently restricts the recognition of this net benefit. However, in consultation with the Illinois Division of Insurance, we recorded in our second quarter statutory financial statements the full net benefit of the reinsurance treaty, which included the $95 million benefit and an accrual for the present value of the future 10-year premium expense due the reinsurer.
Our intention is to pay all legitimate claims and expenses. Based on information currently available to us, we believe the combination of our current cash, investments and anticipated future premiums will provide sufficient resources to enable Triad to meet these obligations. Our focus remains on the efficient and effective servicing of our insured portfolio, particularly with respect to loss mitigation. We continue to improve our processes in this area by examining and refining all aspects of our default management and claims process, particularly for recent policy years.


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Included in Triad's policyholders' surplus for statutory purposes is a "surplus note" of $25 million payable to the Company, its parent. In June of 2008, the Illinois Division of Insurance denied Triad's request for the payment of the semi-annual interest of $1.1 million due on the surplus note. Furthermore, the corrective order issued by the Illinois Division of Insurance prohibits Triad from paying principal or interest on the surplus note for the foreseeable future. See the "Liquidity and Financial Resources" section of this report for additional information concerning the corrective order.
In July 2008, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 was enacted, which established the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA) as the successor regulatory agency to both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA has broad legal and regulatory authority to ensure the safety and soundness of the GSEs, including the ability to place the GSEs into receivership or conservatorship. On September 7, 2008, FHFA placed both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship. Conservatorship is a process designed to stabilize a troubled institution with the objective of returning the troubled institution to normal business operations. FHFA will act as the conservator of both GSEs. FHFA has stated that the purpose of this action is to restore confidence in the GSEs, to enhance their capacity to fulfill their mission, and to mitigate the systematic risk that has contributed directly to the instability in the market. The impact of this action on our results of operations and our financial condition is not clear at this time.
During October 2008, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 ("EESA") was enacted. EESA, among other things, authorizes the Secretary of the United States Department of the Treasury to purchase from certain financial institutions up to $700 billion of residential and commercial mortgages and any other financial instrument as deemed necessary to promote financial market stability. The Treasury already has allocated $250 billion of these funds to purchase securities issued by certain financial institutions. Additionally, several large lenders have announced plans to implement programs designed to explore the possibility of modifications to certain loans. The impact of these events on our results of operations and our financial condition is unclear at this time.
Consolidated Results of Operations
Following is selected financial information for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007:

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