AP
Earnings Preview: Deere 4th-quarter results
Tuesday November 24, 2:34 pm ET
By David Mercer, Associated Press Writer
Deere 4th-quarter results expected to reflect soft demand for farm, construction equipment

Deere & Co., the world's largest maker of farm equipment, reports earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter on Wednesday before the market opens. Below is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW:

Sluggish economic conditions in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world continued to drive down demand for farming and construction equipment, two of Deere's key products.

Farm commodity prices in particular show little sign of rebounding to anything like the bubble highs of the past couple of years -- a period when many farmers bought new equipment.

The Moline, Ill.-based company in August cut sales projections for the year, saying it expects its biggest single-year drop in at least 50 years. But Deere, the world's largest maker of farm equipment, reiterated an annual profit forecast of $1.1 billion.

And the company has started calling back some workers it laid off earlier this year in response dropping demand. More than 450 employees of an Iowa farm equipment plant were called back last month to start production of 2010 models.

Samuel R. Allen became Deere's president and CEO in the third quarter, succeeding Robert W. Lane. But few, if any, analysts expect significant changes, particularly in Deere's focus on markets outside North America, which accounts for more than half of the company's agricultural sales, its biggest source of revenue.

Deere in late August said it will spend $125 million on a new manufacturing and parts center in Russia.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, expect a profit of 3 cents per share on revenue of $4.44 billion. In the year-earlier period, Deere posted a profit of 81 cents per share on revenue of $6.73 billion.

ANALYST TAKE:

Longbow Research analyst Eli Lustgarten expects Deere to report a profit of 2 cents per share and sees difficult quarters ahead since farm commodity prices have fallen and aren't expected to rebound soon.

"Virtually all of (Deere's) current earnings stem from the farm equipment sector and anecdotal evidence from the farm belt has suggested increased caution over the past few months in regards to farm equipment purchases, largely because it is not necessary to replace existing equipment (after two strong years of buying) and because the expected business outlook/expansion does not merit new purchases," Lustgarten wrote in a note to investors.

WHAT'S AHEAD:

Though Allen is new and some analysts see the company taking a close look at its strategy, Barclays Capital analyst Meredith Taylor wrote that the company is unlikely to shift its focus from emerging markets and other growth opportunities.

Deere hasn't provided an outlook for fiscal 2010, "but we think that management looks for mixed trends by geography," Taylor wrote.

Her firm sees stronger trends in Latin America and continued difficulties in Europe.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: During the quarter, Deere shares rose 4.8 percent to finish at $45.55 on Oct. 30. Over the past year, the stock has traded between $24.51 and $53.59 per share.



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