NEW YORK (AP) -- Forrester Research Inc. is projecting an 8 percent increase to $44.7 billion in online holiday sales compared with a year ago as bargain hunters turn to the Web for deals.

The Internet research company says the expected increase would be higher than the 5 percent sales gain posted for the 2008 holiday season, but would be well below the 20 percent surge posted in 2007.

The Forrester figures exclude travel sales.

The National Retail Federation, the world's largest retail trade group, has forecast a 1 percent decline in overall U.S holiday retail sales for this year compared with a year ago.